[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices pulled back sharply on August 15, with the actual YoY growth of industrial added value above designated size in July reaching 5.7%.

SMM Nickel News on August 15:

Macro News:

(1) The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on August 15, 2025, it will conduct a 500 billion yuan buyback reverse repo operation with a fixed quantity, interest rate tendering, and multiple winning bids, with a term of six months.

(2) Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in July, the actual year-on-year growth of industrial added value for enterprises above designated size was 5.7%. On a MoM basis, industrial added value for enterprises above designated size increased by 0.38% compared to the previous month. From January to July, industrial added value for enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% YoY.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price is 120,200-122,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 121,500 yuan/mt, down 1,850 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for spot premiums of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,100-2,300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for premiums and discounts of spot electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is -50-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2509) opened sharply lower and remained in the doldrums, retesting the key price level of 120,000 yuan/mt. As of the midday session, SHFE nickel was quoted at 120,350 yuan/mt, with an intraday decline of 1.41%.

After the release of the US July CPI data, the market's expectation for the probability of an interest rate cut in September rose to over 94%. The US dollar index pulled back to around 98. Trump publicly pressured Fed Chairman Powell to "cut interest rates immediately," further strengthening easing expectations. However, geopolitical and policy uncertainties, along with high inventory pressure, limited the gains. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate amid the tug-of-war between weak fundamentals and macro sentiment support, with a price range of 119,000-123,000 yuan/mt.